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Evangelicals Don’t Love Trump

Posted on Sep 14, 2015 by in Politics | 0 comments


“Why Evangelicals Worship Trump”; “Trump-ward, Christian Soldiers?”; “Why Do Evangelicals Support Trump?”; “Evangelicals Love Donald Trump: How a thrice-married New York braggart won them over — and why it’s so scary.”

These are real headlines running in major newspapers and well-trafficked blogs. They are representative of inside-the-Beltway conventional wisdom. This media meme is 100 percent spot-on except for one minor thing: Evangelicals don’t really like Donald Trump.

Trump Weakest Among Evangelicals
Let’s look at Reuters poll tracker over August 21 to September 4, the last full two weeks available at the time of this writing. Trump led all likely GOP primary voters with 33 percent, and Carson and Bush tied for a distant second place with 12 percent. Everybody else was mired in single digits. This matches up pretty well with other public polls.

Among the 40 percent of GOP primary voters who say they are evangelical or born again, Trump only polls 25 percent compared to his 38 percent support among all other GOP primary voters. Even that overstates the amount of Trump support you would find in an evangelical pew on Sunday morning. Of those evangelical GOP primary voters who go to church at least once a month (80 percent of that subgroup), Trump polls just 21 percent. By contrast, among those attending church less frequently, Trump doubles his support.

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